Polymarket Is Not a Poll

Many residents seem to be under the impression that Polymarket is a Pickering poll. It is not. In the past few days, I've received two emails and several direct messages from residents who told me they had planned to vote for me, but saw that Polymarket listed me with a 2% chance of winning. Some of the other candidates are listed with similarly low numbers. These residents felt that a vote for me would be a wasted vote.

I understand why. A percentage next to a candidate's name looks official. But before anyone changes their vote because of it, here's what you need to know.

1. Polymarket is a betting site, not a survey

Polymarket is an online prediction market. People bet real money on the outcome of events, from sports games to elections around the world. The percentage next to each Pickering candidate isn't the share of voters who support them. It's the price of a bet. If a "Yes" share on a candidate sells for 2 cents, the site displays that candidate at about 2%.

Nobody is asking Pickering voters anything. There's no sample of residents, no check of who is placing the bets or where they live, no published method and no margin of error. A bettor in another country has exactly the same say in those numbers as a voter on Liverpool Road.

2. Follow the money: there is almost nothing behind these numbers

Under each candidate's name on the Pickering market page, Polymarket shows the "volume": the total value of every trade ever made on that candidate since the market opened. As of October 22, here is what it shows:

• Kevin Ashe: $3,698
• Janice Frampton: $2,573
• Doug Cornell: $437
• Zargham Rasool: $272
• Andrea Wood: $183
• Lisa Robinson: $124
• Shaun Rickard: $123

Added together, that's about $7,410 in total trading on the entire Pickering mayoral race. Pickering had 99,186 residents at the 2021 Census, so that works out to less than 8 cents per resident. These are not the opinions of tens of thousands of Pickering voters. They're the bets of a small number of people, most of whom may never have set foot in our city.

3. A few hundred dollars can move the "odds"

Because so little money is involved, it takes very little to move the numbers. In total, $123 has been traded on my name since the market opened. Someone with a few hundred dollars could buy enough shares to push any candidate's "chance" up or down noticeably, in either direction, in minutes. No votes would change. No poll would be taken. Only the price of a bet.

You don't have to take my word for it. Polymarket's own chart shows it. In mid-October, the frontrunner's "odds" plunged from about 72% to about 42% and then bounced straight back. There was no poll, no debate and no news behind that swing. It was simply trading on a thin market. My own number has also moved, from about 4% earlier this week to 2% today.

4. There is no polling behind these numbers

To my knowledge, there has been no public polling of the Pickering mayoral race at all. That means there's no real data on how Pickering residents intend to vote for these "odds" to be based on. At best, they reflect name recognition and guesswork. Incumbents tend to look stronger on sites like this simply because more people know their names, not because residents have been asked.

5. A vote is only wasted if it goes against what you believe

Municipal elections are decided by the residents who actually show up, and turnout is usually low. That means every single vote carries real weight. No betting site, survey or social media post can tell you that your vote doesn't count. Only you decide that.

If you believe I'm the candidate who best represents you, please don't let a few thousand dollars of online bets talk you out of it. And if you believe another candidate represents you better, vote for them. Either way, make your decision based on the candidates' plans and records, not on a betting site.

"Polymarket doesn't vote. Pickering does."

What I'm asking every resident to do

• Read every candidate's platform. A full list of mayoral candidates and their websites is on the City of Pickering's official candidate page.
• Ask questions. I answer every one personally at Shaun@ShaunRickardForMayor.ca.
• Vote for the candidate who best represents you, and encourage your neighbours to do the same.

My full plan is here: shaunrickardformayor.ca/platform

Sources

• Polymarket, Pickering, ON Mayoral Election Winner, accessed October 22, 2026
• City of Pickering, List of Certified Candidates
• City of Pickering, Voting Methods
• Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population: Pickering, population 99,186